Best time to see the northern lights in Manley Hot Springs, Alaska
Manley Hot Springs gets aurora on 44.8 clear nights in a typical year. January is the best month at 8.8 of them, and aurora needs Kp 2 or higher, which the planetary index last reached on 7 September 2026.
These are typical-year figures: a 1996–2026 planetary Kp record crossed with a 2001–2020 cloud normal. They describe a normal year, not tonight — the live Manley Hot Springs forecast shows the actual cloud, moon and darkness right now. Check tonight's forecast for Manley Hot Springs →
🌌 Clear nights a year
44.8
Regular — 44.8 clear nights in a typical year.
🌟 Best month
January
8.8 clear nights in a typical year
⚡ Kp needed
Kp 2
Horizon threshold; last reached 7 September 2026
🧭 Auroral oval (model)
Overhead
Model estimate at Kp 2, magnetic latitude 65.3°
Month by month in Manley Hot Springs
Astronomical darkness, the nights on which planetary Kp reached Kp 2 inside that darkness, the same count over the current solar cycle alone, and what the local cloud normal leaves of the long-run figure.
| Month | Astronomical darkness | Opportunity nights | Since 2023 | Mean cloud | Clear opportunity nights | Moon-free |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 12.16h | 19.39 | 24.97 | 54.6% | 53.4% | |
| February | 9.83h | 16.95 | 22.26 | 59.8% | 53% | |
| March | 6.09h | 16.52 | 22.26 | 49.4% | 55.8% | |
| April | 2.11h on 19% of nights | 1.92 | 4.61 | 56.8% | 54.9% | |
| May | No astronomical darkness | — | — | 67.9% | — | — |
| June | No astronomical darkness | — | — | 72% | — | — |
| July | No astronomical darkness | — | — | 77.3% | — | — |
| August | No astronomical darkness | — | — | 73.6% | — | — |
| September | 4.65h on 90.8% of nights | 12.22 | 12.49 | 71.9% | 57.2% | |
| October | 8.89h | 17.5 | 17.37 | 80.2% | 56% | |
| November | 11.65h | 17.86 | 19.54 | 66.7% | 53.4% | |
| December | 12.93h | 17.4 | 20.36 | 59.1% | 53.6% |
May, June, July and August never reach astronomical darkness at Manley Hot Springs, so no Kp value makes them viewable there and they are excluded rather than scored.
Opportunity nights are the whole 1996–2026 record. In the current solar cycle alone (since 2023), January has averaged 24.97 rather than 19.39.
- January: 12.16h of astronomical darkness a night
- January: 19.39 nights reach the Kp threshold inside that darkness
- January: 54.6% mean cloud leaves 8.8 of them clear
- January: 53.4% of those nights are moon-free
Nearby in Alaska
The strongest locations in the same state, by clear aurora nights a year.
How these numbers were made
- Evaluated at
- Manley Hot Springs, 64.9986° N 150.6436° W — darkness and cloud are properties of that point, not of a region.
- Darkness
- sun geometric altitude at or below -18 degrees (astronomical twilight). 10-minute samples across every year of the Kp record (1996-2026), averaged per night of each month rather than sampled on one representative day.
- Geomagnetic record
- GFZ Potsdam planetary Kp index, 3-hourly, 1996-01-01 to 2026-09-07 — 89,661 intervals, licensed CC BY 4.0.
- Cloud
- NASA POWER SYN1DEG 20-year Meteorological and Solar Monthly & Annual Climatologies (January 2001 - December 2020), parameter CLOUD_AMT. A monthly mean, not a forecast.
- Moon
- A night counts as moon-free below 35% lunar illumination while the moon is up.
- Auroral oval
- NOAA auroral oval — model estimate, reported separately. The figure for this location is above, beside the measured record it never replaces.
- Clear opportunity nights
- clear opportunity nights = nights on which at least one 3-hour Kp interval falls inside local astronomical darkness and reaches the location’s horizon threshold, scaled by (1 - monthly mean cloud amount)
- Dataset version
- Version 2026-09-07, computed offline by seo-ops scripts/aurora-usa-best-time-data.ts.
The same dataset for every tracked city and state is published at US Aurora Season Climatology, and how the live forecast is built is on the methodology page. Kp record: GFZ Potsdam (CC BY 4.0). Cloud normal: NASA POWER.
Frequently asked questions
When can you see the northern lights in Manley Hot Springs?
January is the best month, with 8.8 clear nights in a typical year out of 44.8 clear nights across the whole year. Every month except May, June, July and August carries some chance. May, June, July and August never reach astronomical darkness, so no Kp value makes them viewing months.
What Kp is needed to see the aurora from Manley Hot Springs?
Manley Hot Springs needs Kp 2 or higher for aurora on the northern horizon, Kp 3 for a noticeable display and Kp 4 for a bright one. The NOAA auroral-oval model places the oval overhead at Manley Hot Springs once the planetary index reaches Kp 2. That is a model estimate; the dates on this page come from the measured Kp record instead.
Has the aurora ever been visible from Manley Hot Springs?
Yes. In the 1996–2026 planetary Kp record the index reached the horizon threshold for Manley Hot Springs, Kp 2, most recently on 7 September 2026. Whether anyone saw it also depended on the cloud, moonlight and darkness of that night, which the Kp record does not carry.
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